Macro RG — DAX 40

Market-level Reality Gap approximation for the German DAX 40 index.

Macro approximation — not full RG Trailing P/E — not CAPE Data through 2026-04 · fetched 2026-04-11 Tangible equity not included

1. Current Reading

M(DAX 40)RG10

1.80

as of 2026-04

Above average — caution zone

Trailing P/E

18.0

12-month trailing price-to-earnings

Cross-checked: EXS1.DE · DBXD.DE

Construction

M(DAX 40)RG10 = P/E_trailing / 10

Trailing P/E is used instead of Shiller CAPE because no free automated source for historical DAX CAPE data is available. The formula mirrors M(S&P 500)RG10 = CAPE / 10, but the denominator uses 12-month earnings rather than 10-year smoothed earnings.

DAX 40 level: 23.804 · 52-week change: +13.6%

2. Cross-Index Comparison

Side-by-side macro RG snapshot. Note: the two indices use different earnings denominators (CAPE vs. trailing P/E) — direct comparison should be interpreted with caution.

Historically very hot — rare territory

3.94++

CAPE = 39.4 · 2026-04

Shiller CAPE / 10 (10-year real earnings)

Above average — caution zone

1.80

Trailing P/E = 18.0 · 2026-04

Trailing P/E / 10 (12-month earnings)

The DAX 40 trades at a lower M(RG10) than the S&P 500 (1.80 vs. 3.94), consistent with the DAX's historically lower valuation due to its heavy industrial and automotive weighting. However, part of the gap reflects the different earnings denominators: CAPE typically exceeds trailing P/E in an earnings-recovery environment.

3. Heuristic Interpretation Bands

Same scale as the S&P 500 macro page. Indicative reference only — not signals or thresholds.

M(DAX 40)RG10	Trailing P/E equiv.	Heuristic label
< 1.0	< 10	Below average — historically infrequent
1.0–1.8	10–18	Around long-run average — normal zone
1.8–2.5 ← current	18–25	Somewhat above average — caution
2.5–3.5	25–35	Significantly stretched — elevated risk
≥ 3.5	≥ 35	Historically very hot — rare territory

4. Historical Series — Not Available

For the S&P 500, the Shiller CAPE data (Yale University) provides a monthly series back to 1881 — enabling a full historical chart. No equivalent free automated source exists for the DAX 40.

No historical CAPE series available for DAX 40

All checked free data sources for historical DAX P/E or CAPE returned errors or access blocks:

✗ multpl.com/dax-pe: 404 — page does not exist

✗ Deutsche Bundesbank API: 503 — service unavailable

✗ OECD MEI_FIN (Germany): No P/E series in dataset

✗ macrotrends.net: 403 — access blocked

✗ stooq.com: Captcha-gated API key required

✗ StarCapital archive: 403 — access blocked

✗ JST macrohistory: 404 — page not found

✗ Quandl / Nasdaq Data Link: 403 — access blocked

If DAX CAPE data becomes freely accessible in the future, this page will be updated with a full historical chart. The trailing P/E from ETF providers (current only) is the only free automated data point available.

Note for researchers: Siblis Research (siblisresearch.com) publishes historical CAPE data for 35+ countries including Germany / DAX Index going back 40+ years ($48/month subscription). If building a proper M(DAX)RG10 historical series, this is the recommended source: download the CAPE column for Germany, divide by 10, label as M(DAX)RG10, and mark the DAX 30→40 composition break at September 2021.

5. Methodology Notes

Trailing P/E vs. CAPE

M(DAX40)RG10 = trailing 12-month P/E / 10. For comparison: M(S&P500)RG10 = Shiller CAPE / 10 (10-year real earnings average). Trailing P/E and CAPE are not directly comparable: trailing P/E is sensitive to single-year earnings swings; CAPE smooths over a full business cycle. In a normal earnings environment they tend to be of similar magnitude, but can diverge significantly in recession or recovery years.

Data source

Trailing P/E fetched via yfinance from two DAX ETFs: iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (EXS1.DE) and Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF (DBXD.DE). Both replicate the full DAX 40 total-return index. Values are cross-checked; the average is used when both are available.

DAX vs. S&P 500 structural differences

The DAX 40 is a total-return index (dividends reinvested) while the S&P 500 price index is price-only. The DAX is heavily weighted toward industrials, automotive, chemicals, and financials — sectors with historically lower P/E multiples than the technology-heavy S&P 500. A lower M(DAX40)RG10 than M(S&P500)RG10 is structurally expected, independent of valuation levels.

DAX 30 → DAX 40 composition break (September 2021)

In September 2021, Deutsche Börse expanded the flagship German index from 30 to 40 constituents, adding 10 new companies primarily from mid-cap industries. Any future historical series covering pre- and post-2021 data should mark this structural break: the DAX 40 P/E and earnings profile is not directly comparable to the DAX 30 series prior to September 2021. Current ETF data (EXS1.DE, DBXD.DE) reflects the DAX 40 composition.

What this does not include

Like the S&P 500 macro approximation, the DAX construction omits tangible equity. The full RG formula is MC / (TE + N·G); the macro version uses only the earnings term. No trend code is shown for DAX40 because no historical series is available for comparison with prior periods.

Source: yfinance / Yahoo Finance — iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (EXS1.DE), Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF (DBXD.DE)

Fetched: 2026-04-11. Trailing P/E data reflects the most recent ETF factsheet values from Yahoo Finance.

All data illustrative. Not investment advice.