Macro RG — DAX 40
Market-level Reality Gap approximation for the German DAX 40 index.
1. Current Reading
Trailing P/E is used instead of Shiller CAPE because no free automated source for historical DAX CAPE data is available. The formula mirrors M(S&P 500)RG10 = CAPE / 10, but the denominator uses 12-month earnings rather than 10-year smoothed earnings.
2. Cross-Index Comparison
Side-by-side macro RG snapshot. Note: the two indices use different earnings denominators (CAPE vs. trailing P/E) — direct comparison should be interpreted with caution.
3. Heuristic Interpretation Bands
Same scale as the S&P 500 macro page. Indicative reference only — not signals or thresholds.
| M(DAX 40)RG10 | Trailing P/E equiv. | Heuristic label |
|---|---|---|
| < 1.0 | < 10 | Below average — historically infrequent |
| 1.0–1.8 | 10–18 | Around long-run average — normal zone |
| 1.8–2.5 ← current | 18–25 | Somewhat above average — caution |
| 2.5–3.5 | 25–35 | Significantly stretched — elevated risk |
| ≥ 3.5 | ≥ 35 | Historically very hot — rare territory |
4. Historical Series
For the S&P 500, the Shiller CAPE data (Yale University) provides a monthly series back to 1881. No equivalent free automated source could be verified for the DAX 40.
Historical series not yet available
All checked free data sources for historical DAX P/E or CAPE returned errors or access blocks:
Note for researchers: Siblis Research (siblisresearch.com) publishes historical CAPE data for Germany / DAX going back 40+ years ($48/month). That is the recommended source for a proper M(DAX)RG10 historical series.
5. Methodology Notes
Trailing P/E vs. CAPE
M(DAX40)RG10 = trailing 12-month P/E / 10. For comparison: M(S&P500)RG10 = Shiller CAPE / 10 (10-year real earnings average). Trailing P/E and CAPE are not directly comparable: trailing P/E is sensitive to single-year earnings swings; CAPE smooths over a full business cycle. In a normal earnings environment they tend to be of similar magnitude, but can diverge significantly in recession or recovery years.
Data source
Trailing P/E fetched via yfinance from two DAX ETFs: iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (EXS1.DE) and Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF (DBXD.DE). Both replicate the full DAX 40 total-return index. Values are cross-checked; the average is used when both are available.
DAX vs. S&P 500 structural differences
The DAX 40 is a total-return index (dividends reinvested) while the S&P 500 price index is price-only. The DAX is heavily weighted toward industrials, automotive, chemicals, and financials — sectors with historically lower P/E multiples than the technology-heavy S&P 500. A lower M(DAX40)RG10 than M(S&P500)RG10 is structurally expected, independent of valuation levels.
DAX 30 → DAX 40 composition break (September 2021)
In September 2021, Deutsche Börse expanded the flagship German index from 30 to 40 constituents, adding 10 new companies primarily from mid-cap industries. Any future historical series covering pre- and post-2021 data should mark this structural break: the DAX 40 P/E and earnings profile is not directly comparable to the DAX 30 series prior to September 2021. Current ETF data (EXS1.DE, DBXD.DE) reflects the DAX 40 composition.
What this does not include
Like the S&P 500 macro approximation, the DAX construction omits tangible equity. The full RG formula is MC / (TE + N·G); the macro version uses only the earnings term. No trend code is shown for DAX40 because no historical series is available for comparison with prior periods.
Source: yfinance / Yahoo Finance — iShares Core DAX UCITS ETF (EXS1.DE), Xtrackers DAX UCITS ETF (DBXD.DE)
Fetched: 2026-06-18. Trailing P/E data reflects the most recent ETF factsheet values from Yahoo Finance.
All data illustrative. Not investment advice.